摘要 :
Global imbalances and global financial instability are tightly connected and can be traced to a common cause, that is, financial globalization within the current monetary and financial system. The paper argues that financial globa...
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Global imbalances and global financial instability are tightly connected and can be traced to a common cause, that is, financial globalization within the current monetary and financial system. The paper argues that financial globalization contributes to global imbalances by impeding real exchange adjustments, inducing export-led growth, and sustaining widening deficits in the financial core country. Meanwhile, financial globalization leads to increasing global financial instability. Without a true international clearing union, the United States is charged with providing global liquidity and managing financial risks; but the failure of the United States to provide these essential banking services ultimately brought about the 2008 global financial crisis.
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One explanation for the U.S. sub prime crisis was the export-led growth strategy of China that allowed the country to build up substantial trade surpluses. This led to a world glut of savings and was responsible for low world inte...
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One explanation for the U.S. sub prime crisis was the export-led growth strategy of China that allowed the country to build up substantial trade surpluses. This led to a world glut of savings and was responsible for low world interest rates and the cheap credit in, especially, the United States. Although the Asian countries had little exposure to the subprime assets, they did not escape the downturn because their export markets in the advanced countries collapsed. The rebound was rapid, taking a V-shaped path. This paper examines these issues for China and discusses whether it precipitated the 2007 financial crisis through its trade surplus. The evidence suggests that these surpluses and global imbalances, generally, were the handmaiden of the crisis and not the cause.
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Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index (FII) from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China ...
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Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index (FII) from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China 's macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China's economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.
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The current financial crisis differs from most post-war recessions in that the balance sheets of both households and banks have been severely damaged, which could lead to structural changes in the behavior of households. Therefore...
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The current financial crisis differs from most post-war recessions in that the balance sheets of both households and banks have been severely damaged, which could lead to structural changes in the behavior of households. Therefore, it may exert some far-reaching effects on regional economies in the short run as well as in the medium term. This paper studies these effects using a multi-country dynamic structural model. In the short run, the US credit crisis weighs heavily upon the Asia-Pacific economies through financial linkages in addition to the traditional trade channel due to the deepening global financial integration. The relative importance of various financial channels differs notably across economies. While stock market contagion is more important for advanced economies, flight to quality across borders plays a key role in less developed economies. From a medium-term perspective, changes in the US household behavior caused by the credit crisis can help correct global imbalances, but the effectiveness hinges largely upon how long US households can maintain a reasonably higher savings rate. In addition, although the declining American public savings rate may not exert material impacts on the global imbalances, it can darken regional growth prospects due to a potentially higher world real interest rate.
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Over the past 50 years, one of the key elements of the evolution of the world economy has been the increasing complexity of financial transactions. This complexity is manifested in financial layering and disintermediation that has...
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Over the past 50 years, one of the key elements of the evolution of the world economy has been the increasing complexity of financial transactions. This complexity is manifested in financial layering and disintermediation that has increased risk in the real as well as the financial sectors. The consequences of an adverse outcome of this risk are obvious in the current economic situation. This paper analyzes the imbalances that have arisen between the real and financial sectors and the consequences of the ballooning of the financial sector without producing positive contributions to the real sector and increasing risk to both. It calls for restraint on excesses of financial innovation and risk taking that cannot be held in check by market forces alone.
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The world feels itself to be in transition, but to what is unclear. Will the liberal market model retain its normative primacy once some semblance of normality is restored, or will other varieties of capitalism, with a bigger role...
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The world feels itself to be in transition, but to what is unclear. Will the liberal market model retain its normative primacy once some semblance of normality is restored, or will other varieties of capitalism, with a bigger role of the state, acquire more legitimacy? The answer depends partly on one's explanation for the current crisis. This essay argues, first, that global imbalances had too important a role to ignore, in contrast to a mainstream view that focuses on mistakes in monetary policy and financial regulation. It argues, second, that in light of global dynamics, the crisis is likely to become worse by early 2010-which, on the face of it, makes significant reorganisations of capitalism more likely. The third section lays out what should be done to reconfigure capitalism at national and international levels. The final section discusses the political economy of policy reforms in terms of the difficult translation from what should be done to what can be done. The broad conclusion is that in five years from now the liberal market model will have been restored to normative primacy and 'we must have more globalization' will again be the elite rallying cry; but the crisis will have left behind sufficient doubts about factual propositions and value priorities that political parties and economists advocating alternatives will have more scope than they have had for the past three decades.
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This paper explores the connection between the much-debated global current account imbalances of the past decade and the U.S. financial collapse. It argues that the connection is an intimate one, although nothing so simple as caus...
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This paper explores the connection between the much-debated global current account imbalances of the past decade and the U.S. financial collapse. It argues that the connection is an intimate one, although nothing so simple as cause and effect. Instead, the imbalances were a primary symptom of forces that led directly to the financial crash. The paper goes on to examine lessons for reforming the global financial architecture. A major lesson is the need to take a systemic view of global financial stability - a view that analyzes the global economy much as one would analyze an integrated domestic economy.
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The global financial crisis (GFC) has shown that monetary policy focused on a stable price level may negatively affect the stability of the financial system. Therefore, achieving price and financial stability using interest rates ...
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The global financial crisis (GFC) has shown that monetary policy focused on a stable price level may negatively affect the stability of the financial system. Therefore, achieving price and financial stability using interest rates as the main tool is difficult. In this paper, we analyse how often monetary policy strengthened imbalances in the financial system in 20 countries from 1999Q1 to 2020Q2. To this end, we compare monetary policy stance with a novel financial imbalance index (FII). We find that monetary policy is material in aggravating financial imbalances mostly in Eurozone countries. We attribute this finding to the ECB's "too loose, too long" monetary policy and to difficulties with applying single monetary policies in countries with different economic conditions and in different phases of credit and financial cycles. Our results point to a need for a proactive macroprudential policy in the environment of low interest rates.
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We focus on the external sector component of financial instability and link changes in country imbalances to GDP growth rates in ways to produce indices of expected worsening or improving financial instability at different points ...
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We focus on the external sector component of financial instability and link changes in country imbalances to GDP growth rates in ways to produce indices of expected worsening or improving financial instability at different points in time. Our results suggest that depending upon the index used and the base date chosen for comparison, different implications emerge for the linkage between external sector imbalances, perceived future instability and hence the possible onset of a financial crisis. The implication we drawn is that links between imbalances and best policy response to 2008 crisis asserted by the G20 may be more tenuous than claimed.
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In the article I discuss some possible explanations for two features of financial globalization over recent years; first, the fact that expected returns have fallen significantly in advanced countries, even though economic growth ...
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In the article I discuss some possible explanations for two features of financial globalization over recent years; first, the fact that expected returns have fallen significantly in advanced countries, even though economic growth has accelerated; and second, the fact that capital is flowing from poor to rich countries rather than the other way round, a phenomenon known in the literature as the "Lucas Paradox". The "incomplete" nature of globalization, notably the persistent differences in institutional quality between North and South, might explain both puzzles as well as the emergence of global imbalances. Alternative explanations based on a fall in risk premia and accommodative monetary policy conditions fit the facts less well. I then discuss the implications for monetary policy.
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